Saturday 24th June, 2023 - The Economics of Catching the AI Wave (Issue #120)
We are heading into a future where AI is in every technology we use. You need to understand the fundamental cost curves, and maybe dangers, that are in play in solving the training conundrum.
Hello and welcome to my newsletter!
Another season 2 instalment…
It feel like this week has predominantly been about finance. There were a few podcasts that didn’t make it into last week’s issue, and there was a bunch more from this week. Much of it is centred around funding, something that’s going to be really important to understand with both a deflationary economy on the horizon but also a big tech wave in AI starting.
There are lots of possibilities but it’s kind of the wild west out there, or at least it has been. We are still figuring out the best ways to approach building AI powered companies while using the futuristic tech we build. The stakes are high. It feels to me that building a business these days has become very complex, and very competitive. I’m worried the wheels are going to spin off the axels. Anyhow the selection this week will give you a very broad view of the tech funding / finance environment and what it might look like in the future.
I’ve spent most of this week trying to harmonise all my build and deploy Github Action workflows across the various repos I use for the static site generator and it’s plugins. I’ve nearly got a minimal example working demonstrating the two main ways to trigger workflows from within workflows. You can do it via webhooks or via reusable workflows, for a slightly different operational result.
I heard on a podcast this week that there’s a way to store account wide secrets across all your repos. I haven’t looked into that yet, but that would be awesome for things like API keys.
Hopefully I’ll be able to update all my repos to use the same build and deploy workflows and share API keys across repos. That should make things much easier to maintain.
It’s all preparatory work so that I can add automation to speed up posting to the website. Specifically I’d like linkblog links to get posted automatically for blog and podcast posts, but also for the site to be automatically rebuilt when I merge new content. It’s still a bit manual at the minute. I add the content, rebuild the site, then notice spelling mistakes, missing links etc, and have to repeat the process. It ends up taking hours when it should really take minutes.
Given my horrendous internet connectivity situation at the minute, where I have to stand, any improvements I can make to the posting flow will literally improve my physical well being.
Here’s a link to my collection of minimal example repos in case they are useful to some of you out there:
https://markjgsmith.com/portfolio/#minimals
I wrote two blog posts about bitcoin. One about the price surge over the past few days, the other is a deeper exploration into what bitcoin & crypto is and could be in the future. I was quite happy with both of these, maybe some of you will like them too:
The return of number go up - There‘s been a sudden bout of activity in crypto markets. I thought the graphs were pretty interesting, and when you look around at the major things going on that could affect the price, it‘s very much a mixed bag, but price is going up sharply reguardless. https://markjgsmith.com/blog/2023/06/22/the-return-of-number-go-up
Unfortunately bitcoin alone doesn't fix the fundamental problem - Some thoughts on why bitcoin and crypto don't fix the main issue we face, and why it could infact make the problem worse. All tempered with an optimistic vision of what the future could look like if we tackled the root cause at the same time as developing these new currencies. https://markjgsmith.com/blog/2023/06/24/unfortunately-bitcoin-alone-doesnt-fix-the-fundamental-problem
If you liked and/or thought these were insightful posts in some way then please share them with others.
Podcasts
Market melt-up, IPO Update, AI startups overheat, Reddit overheats, and more with Brad Gerstner Ep#133 (All-in Podcast) - Lots of interesting things discussed but the standout topics are the changing nature of the open web and the funding landscape of AI. The segment about understanding cost curves is fundamental in figuring out the training conundrum, but I fear that it could be an area that if too well understood could end up being weaponised against ourselves, since when you think about it, we too rely on training, at Infiniti training looks a lot more like scheduling, and freedom doesn’t look like much at all. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbGxpbmNoYW1hdGhqYXNvbi5saWJzeW4uY29tL3Jzcw/episode/M2JiYmQ3OWUtYWJkZi00NjExLWEwZjEtY2E3ODYwZjE0MTY5?sa=X&ved=0CAgQuIEEahcKEwiojei6ptj_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQLA
Private equity bought out your doctor and bankrupted Toys”R”Us. Here’s why that matters (Decoder Podcast) - This sounds rather dull, but in actuality was fascinating. PE has become a core part of our modern world. Huge parts of the economy are financed through PE, but it’s not very well understood by the general population. Leveraged buyouts using massive loans that need to be paid back, and market monopolies, eg Elon Musk buying out Twitter, can work but they can also lead to big problems. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vcmVjb2RlZGVjb2Rl/episode/MmM5OTFkYmMtMzUwZi0xMWVkLThkNTItMmZlMTdmZWJlZGZm?sa=X&ved=0CAYQkfYCahcKEwiojei6ptj_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQSA
Weekly Roundup 06.19.23 (Peter St Onge Podcast) - Startup mass extinction, VC activity, de-dollarisation, FED admits inflation is stuck, the mind-bending scale of the interest on debt problem, capital controls and freezing of bank accounts, yield curves and recession. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8yMTc2NTAyLnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC0xMzA1NzM3Mg?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwj4tIerp9j_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ
Reddit vs Reddit: the latest on the fight for the platform (Vergecast Podcast) - They cover the recent civil war happening over at Reddit brought about by the changes to their API. There is clearly merit to both sides of the argument, Reddit needs to be able to make money without being captive to a digital ‘landed gentry’, but they shouldn’t be exploitative of the users on the platform. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vdmVyZ2VjYXN0/episode/NzYxZWVmYzYtMzUwZS0xMWVkLWFjNmUtY2IxNWZmNWY1ZTE4?sa=X&ved=0CAYQkfYCahcKEwj4tIerp9j_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQJg
Live in Miami - Bitcoin mining - with Troy Cross and Harry Suddock (What Bitcoin Did Podcast) - This was overall a very interesting conversation but the thing that struck me was the insanity / mentalness of the bitcoin miner mindset. What will a world that is dependent on miners look like? Especially when you consider a future with super intelligent AI and brain implants.
What is money in the Digital Age? with Brendan Malone Ep#176 (Bankless Podcast) - They lay out a pretty effective mental model for thinking about money, it’s a spectrum of moneyness, from credit all the way to cash. I’m liking the Bankless Podcast these past few weeks, though I’ve started disliking their sign off, which I guess they think sounds cool, but why isn’t the frontier for everyone? Isn’t the whole point of crypto that it will be for everyone? https://www.bankless.com/early-access-what-is-money-in-the-digital-age-with-brendan-malone
No One Understands Bitcoin with Allen Farrington (What Bitcoin Did Podcast) - Lots of interesting topics covered including the systemic obstruction to people learning about money, the problem fiat money solved in the first place, the miss-allocation of capital, pension funds being forced to make riskier and riskier investments in order to offset inflation, the inevitability of moving from gold to fiat, systemic issues in the money system being bigger than those related to fraud. https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/no-one-understands-bitcoin
Can Bitcoin Fix the IMF and World Bank? With Alex Gladstein and Natalie Smolensky(What Bitcoin Did Podcast) - This is a great episode in terms of understanding a big piece of the bad things that have been going on at the highest level of human organisation. I worry that Bitcoin could make things even worse. In a Bitcoin world wouldn’t oppressive regimes win because they would be prepared to IMF and World Bank their own people?The winner optimises until infiniti, until each individual is CVD’d into place, then charges you for murdering you, even though there’s plenty for everyone. They would weaponise capacity to keep everyone permanently locked down. It’s these sort of extreme unintended scenarios that I worry about. How do we use cost curves to bring liberal values to everyone? Or at least stop it getting worse, stop the race to the bottom, it could be very counter intuitive. Money inflation is bad enough, but what happens when literally everything in society is inflated just to squeeze out a little more, even if it’s totally self defeating and unnecessary. https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/can-bitcoin-fix-the-imf-world-bank
Cash grows 7 times faster than people (Crypto Voices Podcast) - Surely a bit of a sign things aren’t quite right https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy9kOGRlY2YzYy9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/NDJkMTE5ODYtMzBiYy00Mjk4LTllNmUtZTNkOWEwOTJlNDg0?sa=X&ved=0CAQQ8qgGahgKEwj4tIerp9j_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQsQQ
Links
Lots and lots of great links this week, I haven’t had time to make a selection yet, so please checkout the linkblog:
Starvation days this week: 3
Thirst days this week: 0
That’s all from me…
Best reguards,
Mark
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Have a great weekend and a fantastic next week!